For UK and European businesses, the most important change in Washington after the midterms isn’t who won but who will be asking the questions.
Democrats have secured control of both the House and the Senate, with comfortable majorities in each. From January, they will chair every committee in Congress. Those chairs decide which issues get attention and which executives are called to give evidence.
As Acuti Associates noted after the vote, a president facing an opposition Congress in their final two years is a familiar pattern. What stands out is how often power now changes hands. Since 2000, control of the White House, the House or the Senate has changed in 12 of 14 federal elections. For businesses, political volatility is the new normal.
The Work Crowd member Pete Weissman, a communications adviser to Fortune 500 CEOs who himself worked in the Clinton White House and later the Senate, warns against expecting a reset:
“Don’t count on things going back to ‘normal’ when the new Congress is sworn in on 3rd January. From my time in the White House and Senate, I learned that while divided government creates a legislative check, it doesn’t eliminate executive power. The administration will still drive market volatility - especially around trade - so caution remains the right posture for European leaders.”
Energy and costs. The war with Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil above $100 a barrel at times this year, feeding through to inflation, interest rates and supply chains here.
Europe has its own election calendar. France, Italy and Poland all hold national elections in 2027. Businesses will be closely reading political signals on both sides of the Atlantic at once.
For organisations with US exposure, the next two years call for someone who can read Washington and explain it to a UK board, with knowledge on the ground in Washington and the states.
Billy Pitman, Founder and Principal of Cape & Quill Strategies and a former Chief Operating Officer at the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, is another member of The Work Crowd. He explains exactly why that local knowledge matters:
“Whether party control in D.C. is unified or divided, sustained Washington policy action in recent years has proven rare - defined by fleeting momentum at best, if not administrative inertia at worst. State capitals remain the true bedrock of day-to-day business regulation, policy implementation and major public procurement, consistently driving key decisions on infrastructure, clean energy, technology and economic development. International leaders with US interests shouldn't focus solely on monitoring federal headlines but instead look to the states for strategic market opportunities. Seasoned state-level public affairs experts with extensive local networks who know how to navigate governor's offices, state agencies and procurement channels are essential to protecting long-term interests and capturing growth opportunities.”
Washington still matters, too. The Work Crowd member Cesaltine Gregorio - founder of CBG International Communications in New York and former Head of Communications for Morgan Stanley's US banks - says:
“Firms that want to do business in the US should start building relationships now with the newly elected representatives in Washington and map the new power centers. They should make sure they are prepared for oversight, and that they have a good communication strategy in place, including crisis management.”
This is part of a wider shift in the kind of person companies hire. My colleague Barbara Ozanon, who leads the European team at our sister agency Hanson Search, has seen it first hand:
“When I started recruiting public affairs talent in Brussels about 10 years ago, the brief was nearly always the same: someone who knows the institutions, knows the right people and can influence a file. That brief is changing. More and more, clients are adding: ‘We need someone who can read the wider political and geopolitical landscape, and turn it into strategy.’”
Barbara calls this political intelligence and explores it more in her excellent article ‘From Policy Influence to Political Intelligence’.
As ever, actually finding that expertise will not be easy. Organisations that held off hiring until the result was known are now moving at the same time and experienced people are in short supply. The last time Democrats held both chambers, in 2021, Roll Call reported that demand for Democratic Hill aides outstripped supply as many chose to stay on the Hill while their party was in power.
A permanent search for the right public affairs leader takes time, and it well should. In the meantime, a fractional or interim senior adviser can bring the expertise in quickly, for as long as it is needed. For many businesses the answer is both: interim cover now, alongside a permanent search. Janie Emmerson, who leads Hanson Search's Public Affairs practice, sets out what the midterms mean for permanent hiring in ‘New Gavels, New Brief’.
Nobody can predict exactly what the next two years in Washington will bring. Uncertainty is the brief. The businesses that do well will prepare rather than predict: they will understand their exposure, have the right advice in place and be sufficiently agile to move quickly when things do change.
Is your organisation rethinking how it reads US politics after the midterms? I'd be interested to hear how.
The Work Crowd connects organisations with experienced freelance, fractional and interim professionals in public affairs, policy, corporate affairs and communications, across the UK, Europe and the US. We can help UK and European businesses find flexible US expertise, and US businesses find UK and European talent, quickly and with every independent reference checked.
Madeleine Weightman is Co-Founder and COO at The Work Crowd, working with businesses to find flexible solutions and helping consultants build rewarding portfolio careers.